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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 41

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to NE 2, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.36 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model