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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 52

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 17-B.Baringer punts 26 yards to LAC 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.73 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model