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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 50

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.99 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model