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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New England Patriots
4th & 5 at the 30
New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6
What Actually Happened
(7:03) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe sacked at LAC 38 for -8 yards (3-D.James).
The Three Options
GO
+0.70 EP
What Happened
-
39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.27 EP
- 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.53 EP
KICK
+0.83 EP
Model's Pick
- 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
- 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
