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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 45

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 16-J.Scott punts 32 yards to NE 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.97 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP