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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 58

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:05) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short middle to 85-H.Henry (27-E.Bassey).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.82 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model