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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – San Francisco 49ers 35

What Actually Happened

(8:57) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota up the middle to SF 49 for 1 yard (48-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.58 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.98 EP
  • 9% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 91% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model