Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- PHI offense: +0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Wind 44 mph
- QB edge to SF: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.126 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.282 EPA/dropback
- SF defense: -0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- SF on 3 more days rest than PHI
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
SF
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:54 FG PHI (9:54) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. SF 0 – PHI 3
- Q1 02:05 FG PHI (2:05) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. Penalty on SF-5-R.Gregory, Defensive Offside, declined. SF 0 – PHI 6
- Q2 07:15 TD SF (7:15) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SF 6 – PHI 6
- Q2 00:41 TD SF (:41) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – PHI 6
- Q3 11:48 TD SF (11:48) 19-D.Samuel right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – PHI 6
- Q3 06:53 TD PHI (6:53) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 21 – PHI 12
- Q3 04:04 TD SF (4:04) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 27 – PHI 13
- Q4 10:50 TD SF (10:50) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 34 – PHI 13
- Q4 05:39 TD PHI (5:39) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 35 – PHI 19
- Q4 05:27 TD SF (5:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 41 – PHI 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(9:54) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q1 SF 4th & 12 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(8:56) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to PHI 26, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 13 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 83%
(2:05) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. Penalty on SF-5-R.Gregory, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q1 SF 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:10) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to PHI 33, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-B.Covey to PHI 33 for no gain (0-S.Womack).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(14:24) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to SF 12, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-R.Bell to SF 15 for 3 yards (48-P.Johnson, 57-B.VanSumeren).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(4:47) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to SF 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(2:32) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to SF 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-R.Bell MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at SF 25.
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Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 39%
(13:32) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to PHI 34 for 2 yards (7-H.Reddick, 41-N.Morrow).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 9%
(8:57) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota up the middle to SF 49 for 1 yard (48-O.Burks).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 12 at the 30 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 59%
(2:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Smith (20-A.Thomas).