Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(8:56) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to PHI 26, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.54 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model