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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. Penalty on SF-5-R.Gregory, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.55 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model