Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

(1:10) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to PHI 33, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-B.Covey to PHI 33 for no gain (0-S.Womack).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model