4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 14

Buffalo Bills 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid to KC 10 for 4 yards (54-L.Chenal).

The Three Options

GO +3.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.90 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model