Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- BUF on 7 more days rest than KC
- KC offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- KC defense: -0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- QB edge to BUF: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.144 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.189 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 14
BUF
KC
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 03:48 TD BUF (3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – KC 0
- Q2 11:58 TD BUF (11:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – KC 0
- Q2 01:26 TD KC (1:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.McKinnon left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 14 – KC 6
- Q3 08:41 FG BUF (8:41) 2-T.Bass 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 17 – KC 7
- Q3 03:34 TD KC (3:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 17 – KC 13
- Q4 11:33 FG KC (11:33) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. BUF 17 – KC 17
- Q4 01:57 FG BUF (1:57) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 20 – KC 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 40Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 57%
(9:50) 8-S.Martin punts 32 yards to KC 8, impetus ends at KC 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-R.James to KC 12 for 4 yards (20-T.Rapp).
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Q1 KC 4th & 14 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(7:17) 5-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to BUF 38, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Harty to BUF 47 for 9 yards (54-L.Chenal).
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Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(2:26) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to BUF 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 14Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%
(13:24) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid to KC 10 for 4 yards (54-L.Chenal).
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Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 59%
(8:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to BUF 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-40-E.Boye-Doe.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%
(8:41) 2-T.Bass 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 56%
(1:59) 8-S.Martin punts 61 yards to KC 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-R.James to KC 26 for 20 yards (39-C.Lewis).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 18 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(15:00) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to KC 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-R.James pushed ob at KC 41 for 25 yards (54-B.Spector).
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Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(11:33) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(7:05) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to BUF 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Harty to BUF 31 for 8 yards (43-J.Cochrane).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 21 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%
(1:57) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q4 KC 4th & 15 at the 54 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(1:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Kelce [56-L.Floyd].