Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(15:00) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to KC 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-R.James pushed ob at KC 41 for 25 yards (54-B.Spector).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.35 EP
74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -2.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model