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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 40

Buffalo Bills 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 8-S.Martin punts 32 yards to KC 8, impetus ends at KC 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-R.James to KC 12 for 4 yards (20-T.Rapp).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model