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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.19 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model