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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 21

Buffalo Bills 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.27 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model