Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 54

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Buffalo Bills 20

(1:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Kelce [56-L.Floyd].

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.12 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 54, worth -1.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model