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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 69

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to LAC 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model