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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2023-12-10 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DEN
40.1%
LAC
59.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.102 vs Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.028 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LAC defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20
–
LAC 22
Projected margin: LAC by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DEN

Samaje Perine RB Questionable Knee

LAC

Zack Bailey G Out Back
Deane Leonard CB Out Ankle
Josh Palmer WR Out Knee
Amen Ogbongbemiga LB Questionable Hamstring
Otito Ogbonnia DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 24
–
LAC 7

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:00 TD DEN (5:00) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – LAC 0
  • Q2 00:08 FG DEN (:08) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 10 – LAC 0
  • Q3 06:05 TD DEN (6:05) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-43-M.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. DEN 16 – LAC 0
  • Q4 10:40 TD LAC (10:40) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – LAC 6
  • Q4 03:16 TD DEN (3:16) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 82-A.Trautman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – LAC 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 18 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:18) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on DEN-20-M.Burton, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DEN 18.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (10:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 7-G.Everett.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 53%

    (6:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to LAC 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-57-B.Niemann.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:38) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to LAC 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 20 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:32) 16-J.Scott punts 83 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to LAC 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 83%

    (3:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 82-A.Erickson. LAC-10-J.Herbert was injured during the play. Penalty on LAC, Illegal Shift, declined.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to LAC 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:41) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 30 for 13 yards (53-B.Lynch).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (:08) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 60%

    (8:11) 25-J.Kelley left tackle to DEN 40 for no gain (47-J.Jewell; 49-A.Singleton).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:08) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 16, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to DEN 28 for 12 yards (31-N.Niemann, 0-D.Henley).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short right to 13-K.Allen to LAC 49 for 6 yards (2-P.Surtain).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 38%

    (14:03) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen (6-P.Locke). DEN-6-P.Locke was injured during the play. DEN-29-J.McMillian was injured during the play.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 48%

    (12:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to LAC 6, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.