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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 29

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(3:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 82-A.Erickson. LAC-10-J.Herbert was injured during the play. Penalty on LAC, Illegal Shift, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.16 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model