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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 73

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to LAC 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model