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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 45

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to LAC 6, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.60 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model