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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 43

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to LAC 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-57-B.Niemann.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.14 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP