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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP