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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 38

Chicago Bears 10 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:43) (No Huddle) 2-D.Moore left end to DET 38 for no gain (6-I.Melifonwu, 93-J.Paschal).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.57 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model