Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- DET offense: +0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- QB edge to DET: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.168 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.109 EPA/dropback
- CHI defense: -0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- CHI on 6 more days rest than DET
- CHI offense: -0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- DET defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 14
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:22 TD CHI (10:22) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 2-D.Moore. 2-D.Moore left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CHI 6
- Q1 01:27 FG CHI (1:27) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. DET 0 – CHI 10
- Q2 07:04 TD DET (7:04) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CHI 10
- Q2 00:30 TD DET (:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 12 – CHI 10
- Q3 08:42 FG CHI (8:42) 8-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. DET 13 – CHI 13
- Q3 01:42 TD CHI (1:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-97-A.Hutchinson, Defensive Offside, declined. DET 13 – CHI 19
- Q4 14:19 TD CHI (14:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – CHI 25
- Q4 09:23 FG CHI (9:23) 8-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. DET 13 – CHI 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DET 4th & 18 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(6:43) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to CHI 8, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 9 for 1 yard (30-K.Dorsey).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 65%
(14:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right intended for 87-S.LaPorta INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Johnson at CHI 15. 33-J.Johnson to CHI 39 for 24 yards (14-A.St. Brown). FUMBLES (14-A.St. Brown), touched at CHI 40, ball out of bounds at 50. PENALTY on CHI-4-E.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 22.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 57%
(11:43) (No Huddle) 2-D.Moore left end to DET 38 for no gain (6-I.Melifonwu, 93-J.Paschal).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 57%
(9:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 19-D.Peoples-Jones to CHI 21 for 17 yards (32-T.Smith).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 18 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(5:21) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to DET 47, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(14:10) 3-J.Fox punts 58 yards to CHI 13, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 28 for 15 yards (46-J.Campbell; 30-K.Dorsey).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(8:42) 8-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(7:50) 3-J.Fox punts 51 yards to CHI 17, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 48 for 31 yards (3-J.Fox).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%
(5:36) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to DET 13, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 17 for 4 yards (39-J.Blackwell).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DET 4th & 11 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(4:15) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to CHI 41, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor pushed ob at 50 for 9 yards (89-B.Wright).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 13 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 57%
(1:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-97-A.Hutchinson, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(12:18) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 26-J.Gibbs right tackle to DET 30 for -4 yards (57-J.Sanborn, 29-T.Stevenson).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%
(9:23) 8-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DET 4th & 17 at the 38Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 25% p(FG) 57%
(5:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 12 at the 64 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(3:43) 16-T.Gill punts 53 yards to DET 11, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 25 for 14 yards (55-D.Cole; 44-N.Sewell).
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