Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 85

Chicago Bears 10 – Detroit Lions 6

(5:21) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to DET 47, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.52 EP
72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model