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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 71

Detroit Lions 13 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 3-J.Fox punts 58 yards to CHI 13, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 28 for 15 yards (46-J.Campbell; 30-K.Dorsey).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model