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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 7

Chicago Bears 10 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 8-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 7, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model