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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 68

Detroit Lions 13 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 3-J.Fox punts 51 yards to CHI 17, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 48 for 31 yards (3-J.Fox).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model