4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 38

Chicago Bears 13 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(1:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-97-A.Hutchinson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.43 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model