Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 64

Chicago Bears 28 – Detroit Lions 13

(3:43) 16-T.Gill punts 53 yards to DET 11, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 25 for 14 yards (55-D.Cole; 44-N.Sewell).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.86 EP
68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -2.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model