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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 51

New York Giants 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 26-S.Barkley right end to NYG 49 for no gain (45-Er.Wilson, 58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.89 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model