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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Monday 2023-12-11 · 20:15 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.0 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

GB
56.5%
NYG
43.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.190 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Tommy DeVito (NYG): -0.200 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NYG on 7 more days rest than GB
  • GB offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 20
–
NYG 19
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

GB

Christian Watson WR Out Hamstring
Quay Walker LB Doubtful Shoulder
Eric Stokes CB Questionable Hamstring
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Shoulder
Aaron Jones RB Questionable Knee
Darnell Savage S Questionable Chest

NYG

Evan Neal T Out Ankle
Daniel Bellinger TE Questionable Illness
Parris Campbell WR Questionable Knee
Dexter Lawrence DT Questionable Hamstring
A'Shawn Robinson DT Questionable Hamstring
Isaiah Simmons LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 22
–
NYG 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:07 TD GB (1:07) 11-J.Reed right end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 12:00 TD NYG (12:00) 26-S.Barkley left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – NYG 6
  • Q2 00:17 FG GB (:17) 17-A.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 10 – NYG 7
  • Q3 11:27 TD NYG (11:27) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – NYG 13
  • Q3 07:35 FG GB (7:35) 17-A.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 13 – NYG 14
  • Q3 01:35 TD NYG (1:35) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short right to 18-I.Hodgins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – NYG 20
  • Q4 05:35 FG GB (5:35) 17-A.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 16 – NYG 21
  • Q4 01:36 TD GB (1:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 18-M.Heath for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 22 – NYG 21
  • Q4 00:02 FG NYG (:02) 46-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. GB 22 – NYG 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:19) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to NYG 21, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 18%

    (9:00) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to GB 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Reed to GB 16 for 3 yards (47-C.Brown). PENALTY on GB-36-A.Johnson, Illegal Blindside Block, 6 yards, enforced at GB 13.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 49 yards to NYG 39, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-22-R.Rochell. NYG-80-G.Olszewski was injured during the play. PENALTY on GB-20-R.Ford, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at GB 47. Officially, a punt for 35 yards.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 75%

    (4:57) 46-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 18%

    (2:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 13-D.Wicks pushed ob at GB 47 for no gain (25-D.Banks). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 13-D.Wicks pushed ob at GB 48 for 1 yard (25-D.Banks).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 22%

    (5:11) 26-S.Barkley right end to NYG 49 for no gain (45-Er.Wilson, 58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 26%

    (2:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 32 yards to GB 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 92%

    (:17) 17-A.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:05) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to GB 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-K.Nixon MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 28. 25-K.Nixon to GB 28 for no gain (30-D.Holmes). FUMBLES (30-D.Holmes), touched at GB 29, RECOVERED by NYG-48-B.Whitley at GB 32. 48-B.Whitley to GB 31 for 1 yard.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 17 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:16) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to NYG 26, Center-42-M.Orzech. 21-B.McCain MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-20-R.Ford at NYG 14.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (7:35) 17-A.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:08) 6-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to GB 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Reed pushed ob at GB 16 for 7 yards (24-D.Belton).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%

    (5:35) 17-A.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%

    (:02) 46-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.