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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 49

New York Giants 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 32 yards to GB 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.92 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP