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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 10 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to NYG 26, Center-42-M.Orzech. 21-B.McCain MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-20-R.Ford at NYG 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.94 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 62, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model