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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 13 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 17-A.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.29 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model