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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 88

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 49 yards to NYG 39, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-22-R.Rochell. NYG-80-G.Olszewski was injured during the play. PENALTY on GB-20-R.Ford, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at GB 47. Officially, a punt for 35 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.23 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 88, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.88 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model