4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 30

New York Giants 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 46-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.67 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model