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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 53

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 13-D.Wicks pushed ob at GB 47 for no gain (25-D.Banks). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 13-D.Wicks pushed ob at GB 48 for 1 yard (25-D.Banks).

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.56 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.97 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model