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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-C.Jones to CIN 19 for 1 yard (37-A.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 31, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model