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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
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CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2023-12-10 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

IND
40.6%
CIN
59.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Jake Browning (CIN): +0.132 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Gardner Minshew (IND): +0.010 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
CIN 24
Projected margin: CIN by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

IND

Braden Smith T Out Knee
Jonathan Taylor RB Out Thumb
Ameer Speed CB Questionable Hip
Julius Brents CB Questionable Quadricep
E.J. Speed LB Questionable Knee

CIN

D.J. Reader DT Questionable Back
D'Ante Smith T Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Tyler Boyd WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 14
–
CIN 34

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:42 TD CIN (6:42) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – CIN 6
  • Q2 10:22 TD CIN (10:22) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – CIN 13
  • Q2 02:00 TD IND (2:00) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – CIN 14
  • Q2 01:40 TD IND (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right intended for 87-T.Hudson INTERCEPTED by 48-R.Harrison at CIN 36. 48-R.Harrison for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 12 – CIN 14
  • Q3 11:44 TD CIN (11:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 87-T.Hudson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – CIN 20
  • Q3 03:01 TD CIN (3:01) 6-J.Browning left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – CIN 27
  • Q4 11:18 FG CIN (11:18) 2-E.McPherson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. IND 14 – CIN 31
  • Q4 02:00 FG CIN (2:00) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. IND 14 – CIN 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:29) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-C.Jones to CIN 19 for 1 yard (37-A.Speed).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (11:31) 10-B.Robbins punts 52 yards to IND 20, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:49) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 12 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (1:19) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (2:00) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:24) 10-B.Robbins punts 19 yards to IND 41, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-32-T.Williams.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to CIN 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 29 for 6 yards (43-T.Denbow).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (4:21) 28-J.Mixon left guard to IND 1 for 3 yards (20-N.Cross, 44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:24) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-C.Jones to CIN 23 for 5 yards (41-G.Stuard).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 40%

    (13:41) 10-B.Robbins punts 31 yards to IND 14, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 6-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CIN-38-D.Ivey at IND 12.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (11:18) 2-E.McPherson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:47) 10-B.Robbins punts 43 yards to IND 23, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-84-M.Wilcox.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 58
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:17) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 35 for -7 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (2:00) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.