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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 10-B.Robbins punts 52 yards to IND 20, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.73 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 30, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP