Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

(9:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to CIN 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 29 for 6 yards (43-T.Denbow).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.65 EP
65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model