4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 4

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 28-J.Mixon left guard to IND 1 for 3 yards (20-N.Cross, 44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +4.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 4, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model