4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 10-B.Robbins punts 31 yards to IND 14, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 6-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CIN-38-D.Ivey at IND 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model