4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 14

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 2-E.McPherson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.18 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model