Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Indianapolis Colts 14

(7:47) 10-B.Robbins punts 43 yards to IND 23, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-84-M.Wilcox.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.93 EP
59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model