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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 58

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(5:17) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 35 for -7 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.76 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 58, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP